HII

HII, my current biggest holding, is up 10% over the last three days, apparently on the Pentagon's budget briefing. Transcript here. While it looked mildly good, it didn't look +10% over the market good or +12% over General Dynamics good. I see three probable drivers:

• Details of the budget released to connected players who are bidding it up (Congressmen not subject to insider trading laws)



• The announcement brought attention to HII, and more bidders saw it's attractiveness relative to the general market and specifically military contractors



• Potential sellers note the above two, particularly the first one, and hold off selling...

So what do I do? I'm in the third camp I suppose. I think it's worth more but it doesn't have the margin of safety I'd like any more - but selling when insiders are bidding it up would be a sure way to miss out on an upcoming jump.

(note - though it's my biggest position, it's not big - no big positions atm)